The situation on the Korean Peninsula deteriorated on the night of March 30. Western news agencies report that the DPRK has announced that it is in a state of war with South Korea and is ready to react to the provocations on the part of Washington and Seoul, not stopping short of nuclear retaliation. Russia, which has a 17 km common land border with North Korea, is anxiously watching the situation.

Experts stress that the threats are political and real combat actions are not on the cards.
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“I see this statement not as a direct declaration of war or the start of hostilities. Rather, Pyongyang for its part considers that the state of truce is over. This is not a declaration of intent to start combat actions, but a show of determination to retaliate in the event of possible provocations,” says Alexander Vorontsov, the chief of the Korea and Mongolia Department at the Russian Academy of Science Oriental Studies Institute. 

But he stresses the unprecedented pitch of the rhetoric. The last time similar tensions or confrontation occurred was in the 1960s, when the DPRK seized an American ship in its territorial waters. In the event a diplomatic solution was reached - but it took a year, the RAS representative notes. 
The worst-case scenario is the start of a real war with unpredictable consequences. 

“There is no guarantee that a local conflict could be prevented from spreading,” the expert goes on pointing out that this would pose a threat to Russia’s 17 km land border with North Korea. 

The negative scenario will also threaten the Russian Primorye (Maritime) province. There is a risk of an ecological disaster because the 30 nuclear reactors in the north and south of the KDPR “could turn into 10 Chernobyls and Fukushimas”, Mr Vorontsov warns. The flow of refugees will inundate China and may then reach Russia. 

“I hope that common sense will prevail and that the DPRK is not harbouring first nuclear strike plans - although it reserves the right to a pre-emptive strike. Seoul and Washington are showing a responsible attitude to the situation and hopefully, will not cross the line,” Mr Vorontsov told RBTH. 

Under the circumstances the best option for Russia, which has more than once acted as a broker in the Korean conflict, is the language of diplomacy. Excessive military build-up near the borders with North Korea will not be conducive to diplomatic dialogue. “But we should think about securing our own border. So Russia should strike a balance and proceed carefully and judiciously,” the expert concluded. 

The head of the Current Political Studies Centre, Alexei Chesnakov, says the next few days will show whether the conflict will sharpen, threatening a disaster, or whether the DPRK will find a roundabout way.” 

“In any case just putting the problem on the back burner is no longer an option and the responsibility for solving the Korean issue rests not only with these two countries, but with all the members of the six-party settlement process,” the political scientist said. 

Russia for its part should waste no time in joining the process of lessening tensions, he believes. 
Alexei Pushkov, the chairman of the State Duma Foreign Relations Committee, links North Korea’s actions to the recent military exercises South Korea and the USA held close to North Korea’s borders. 

He thinks Pyongyang’s statements are primarily meant to send a signal to the USA. 

“They have drawn a lesson from the Iraq war when Saddam Hussein was unprepared and unable to deliver a strike on the enemy territory. North Korea, by threatening the USA, its bases and allies, is warning America that it will not be treated like Iraq: don’t touch us, or else we will act as we see fit. And they have the potential to retaliate,” the Duma deputy argues. 

Though the international community sees all this as a fit of hysteria, the North Koreans have achieved their aim and made the USA take their statement seriously, Mr Pushkov is convinced. Now America will reckon with Pyongyang’s position in deciding what to do next. 

“Russia is following the situation and is extremely worried about it. It is one thing to give a signal and use political pressure, but using military force to solve the issue is inadmissible and unacceptable,” the head of the Duma Foreign Relations Committee told RBTH.